Discrete event modeling of CD4+ memory T cell generation.

Studies of memory T cell differentiation are hampered by a lack of quantitative models to test hypotheses in silico before in vivo experimentation. We created a stochastic computer model of CD4+ memory T cell generation that can simulate and track 10(1)-10(8) individual lymphocytes over time. Parameters for the model were derived from experimental data using naive human CD4+ T cells stimulated in vitro. Using discrete event computer simulation, we identified two key variables that heavily influence effector burst size and the persistent memory pool size: the cell cycle dependent probability of apoptosis, and the postactivation mitosis at which memory T cells emerge. Multiple simulations were performed and varying critical parameters permitted estimates of how sensitive the model was to changes in all of the model parameters. We then compared two hypotheses of CD4+ memory T cell generation: maturation from activated naive to effector to memory cells (model I) vs direct progression from activated naive to memory cells (model II). We find that direct progression of naive to memory T cells does not explain published measurements of the memory cell mass unless postactivation expansion of the memory cell cohort occurs. We conclude that current models suggesting direct progression of activated naive cells to the persistent memory phenotype (model II) do not account for the experimentally measured size of the postactivation CD4+, Ag-specific, memory T cell cohort.